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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton to DEN 19 for 15 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model