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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to DEN 42, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to 50 for 8 yards (22-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.31 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP