Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

(2:46) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to DEN 33, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 38 for 5 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model