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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NO
39.1%
PHI
60.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (NO): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Out Ankle
Ty Montgomery WR Out Hand
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Malcolm Roach DT Out Knee
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Foot

PHI

Jack Anderson G Out Hamstring
Derek Barnett DE Questionable Neck
Davion Taylor LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 29
–
PHI 40

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:21 TD PHI (7:21) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-57-J.Holmes, Defensive Offside, declined. NO 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 02:08 TD PHI (2:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to NO 1 for 2 yards (56-D.Davis). Philadelphia challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 13:09 TD NO (13:09) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. NO 6 – PHI 14
  • Q2 09:33 FG PHI (9:33) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NO 7 – PHI 17
  • Q2 04:23 FG PHI (4:23) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NO 7 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:34 TD PHI (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 49. 2-D.Slay for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – PHI 26
  • Q3 06:01 FG PHI (6:01) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NO 7 – PHI 30
  • Q3 02:43 FG PHI (2:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NO 7 – PHI 33
  • Q4 14:54 TD NO (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – PHI 33
  • Q4 12:40 TD NO (12:40) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian scrambles up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – PHI 33
  • Q4 07:17 FG NO (7:17) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 22 – PHI 33
  • Q4 04:09 TD PHI (4:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 22 – PHI 39
  • Q4 00:50 TD NO (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 28 – PHI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to PHI 3, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for 12 yards (45-G.Griffin).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:56) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 8 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:04) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to PHI 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 32 for 10 yards (24-D.Washington). PENALTY on NO-50-A.Dowell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 32.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (14:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-55-K.Elliss.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 75%

    (9:33) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to PHI 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 25 for 8 yards (50-A.Dowell).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (4:23) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 24%

    (3:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-53-Z.Baun.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to NO 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 36. 11-D.Harris to NO 36 for no gain (22-M.Epps).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:54) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to NO 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:57) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PHI 47, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NO 40 for 13 yards (40-A.Armah).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (6:01) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (2:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:54) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris ran ob at PHI 39 for 14 yards (45-R.Lovato).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris to PHI 49 for 7 yards (21-A.Chachere, 22-M.Epps).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:17) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.