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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to NO 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model