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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to PHI 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 32 for 10 yards (24-D.Washington). PENALTY on NO-50-A.Dowell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.84 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model