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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model