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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-55-K.Elliss.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model