HOU @ TEN — 4th & Data

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HC David Culley

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HC Mike Vrabel

Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU

21.4%

TEN

78.6%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

HOU offense: -0.271 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
TEN offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
HOU on 7 more days rest than TEN
HOU defense: +0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 16

–

TEN 28

Projected margin: TEN by 12 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Hardy Nickerson LB Out Concussion

Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter

Cre'von LeBlanc CB Questionable Illness

Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Foot

TEN

Nate Davis G Out Concussion

Bud Dupree LB Out Abdomen

Rashaan Evans LB Out Ankle

David Long LB Out Hamstring

Greg Mabin CB Out Ankle

Jeremy McNichols RB Out Concussion

Geoff Swaim TE Out Concussion

Janoris Jenkins CB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 22

–

TEN 13

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:08 FG HOU (4:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – TEN 0
Q2 13:38 FG HOU (13:38) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – TEN 0
Q2 07:50 TD HOU (7:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – TEN 0
Q3 07:08 TD HOU (7:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 18 – TEN 0
Q3 02:29 TD TEN (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-D.Fitzpatrick for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – TEN 6
Q4 07:53 TD TEN (7:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard to HOU 3 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). FUMBLES (41-Z.Cunningham), recovered by TEN-86-A.Firkser at HOU -1. TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – TEN 12
Q4 03:30 FG HOU (3:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 22 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%

(11:07) 6-B.Kern punts 27 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

(4:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

(13:38) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP

p(convert) 65%

(12:32) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (44-T.Carter).
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 75%

(3:10) 8-A.Peterson up the middle to HOU 31 for no gain (51-K.Grugier-Hill, 20-Ju.Reid).
Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(1:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 14 for no gain (33-A.Moore). PENALTY on TEN-49-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 58%

(9:34) 28-R.Burkhead up the middle to TEN 36 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart).
Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 35

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%

(7:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-24-T.Smith at TEN 5.
Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 88%

(2:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard to HOU 18 for 5 yards (25-D.King).
Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 16 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on HOU-8-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 24

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

(14:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 86-A.Firkser (23-E.Murray).
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 67%

(13:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 74

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 75%

(12:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right end to TEN 29 for 3 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 98

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(10:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to HOU 36 for 4 yards (33-A.Moore).
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 67%

(6:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 19 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%

(3:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 54 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23%

(:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.