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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 25

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model