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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 67

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP