Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 98

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 6

(10:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to HOU 36 for 4 yards (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.96 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.06 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model