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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 38
Houston Texans 12 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(9:34) 28-R.Burkhead up the middle to TEN 36 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart).
The Three Options
GO
+1.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.42 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
KICK
-0.24 EP
- 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
