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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
39.2%
DEN
60.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Teddy Bridgewater (DEN): +0.215 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

PHI 20
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

PHI

Andre Dillard T Questionable Knee
Josh Sweat DE Questionable Concussion

DEN

Garett Bolles T Out Ankle
Bobby Massie T Out Ankle
Mike Boone RB Questionable Hip
McTelvin Agim DE Questionable Knee
Baron Browning LB Questionable Back
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Illness
Albert Okwuegbunam TE Questionable Knee
Tim Patrick WR Questionable Knee
Malik Reed LB Questionable Hip
Dalton Risner G Questionable Foot
Caden Sterns S Questionable Shoulder
Patrick Surtain CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 30
–
DEN 13

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 FG PHI (10:17) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 03:24 TD PHI (3:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 9 – DEN 0
  • Q2 13:40 TD DEN (13:40) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 09:41 FG DEN (9:41) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. PHI 10 – DEN 10
  • Q2 03:11 TD PHI (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:10 FG PHI (:10) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 20 – DEN 10
  • Q3 04:54 FG DEN (4:54) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. PHI 20 – DEN 13
  • Q3 00:14 TD PHI (:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – DEN 13
  • Q4 07:39 FG PHI (7:39) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 30 – DEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (10:17) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:50) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to DEN 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 8 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (9:41) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (:10) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (10:56) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (42-K.Wallace), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-49-A.Singleton at PHI 10.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:16) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to DEN 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at PHI 45 for 19 yards (45-R.Lovato).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:54) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:40) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to PHI 35, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:39) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 32 for 9 yards (94-A.Patrick).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:18) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to DEN 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Patrick.