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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 4

Denver Broncos 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (42-K.Wallace), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-49-A.Singleton at PHI 10.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 4, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP