Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 75

Denver Broncos 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 30

(7:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 32 for 9 yards (94-A.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model