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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 23

Denver Broncos 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model