4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model