PIT @ CLE — 4th & Data

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Cleveland Browns

4-4 HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 ET FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PIT

38.0%

CLE

62.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

CLE offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
PIT defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
PIT on 4 more days rest than CLE
PIT offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20 13–27

–

CLE 23 16–30

Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

PIT

Eric Ebron TE Out Hamstring

Melvin Ingram LB Doubtful Groin

CLE

Richard LeCounte S Out Not injury related - discipline

Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Out Groin

Denzel Ward CB Out Hamstring

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle

Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Groin

Odell Beckham WR Questionable Shoulder

A.J. Green CB Questionable Groin

Malik Jackson DT Questionable Ankle

Johnny Stanton FB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 15

–

CLE 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:12 FG CLE (8:12) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. PIT 0 – CLE 3
Q2 09:21 FG PIT (9:21) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – CLE 3
Q3 09:41 TD CLE (9:41) (Shotgun) 30-D.Johnson left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CLE 9
Q3 03:43 TD PIT (3:43) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CLE 10
Q4 11:08 TD PIT (11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

(8:12) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 18%

(4:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 39

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

(15:00) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to PIT 40 for -1 yards (55-D.Bush; 90-T.Watt).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

(9:21) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(8:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 22 for 1 yard (28-M.Killebrew).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(6:21) 7-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 37 for 10 yards (25-D.Felton). FUMBLES (25-D.Felton), recovered by PIT-31-J.Layne at PIT 37. Penalty on PIT-24-B.Snell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 10

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass incomplete short right to 81-Z.Gentry [96-J.Elliott]. PIT-9-C.Boswell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud ran ob at PIT 35 for 19 yards (7-J.Gillan).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(14:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for no gain (41-R.Spillane). PENALTY on CLE-23-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 52

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 20%

(6:26) 22-N.Harris right guard to PIT 49 for 1 yard (33-R.Harrison, 96-J.Elliott).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(1:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-25-D.Felton.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 26 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 25 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.04 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool.
See the full breakdown →

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