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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PIT
40.9%
CLE
59.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT on 4 more days rest than CLE
  • PIT offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PIT

Eric Ebron TE Out Hamstring
Melvin Ingram LB Doubtful Groin

CLE

Richard LeCounte S Out Not injury related - discipline
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Out Groin
Denzel Ward CB Out Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle
Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Groin
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Shoulder
A.J. Green CB Questionable Groin
Malik Jackson DT Questionable Ankle
Johnny Stanton FB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 15
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:12 FG CLE (8:12) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. PIT 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 09:21 FG PIT (9:21) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – CLE 3
  • Q3 09:41 TD CLE (9:41) (Shotgun) 30-D.Johnson left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CLE 9
  • Q3 03:43 TD PIT (3:43) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CLE 10
  • Q4 11:08 TD PIT (11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:12) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 18%

    (4:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

    (15:00) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to PIT 40 for -1 yards (55-D.Bush; 90-T.Watt).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (9:21) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 22 for 1 yard (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:21) 7-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to PIT 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 37 for 10 yards (25-D.Felton). FUMBLES (25-D.Felton), recovered by PIT-31-J.Layne at PIT 37. Penalty on PIT-24-B.Snell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass incomplete short right to 81-Z.Gentry [96-J.Elliott]. PIT-9-C.Boswell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud ran ob at PIT 35 for 19 yards (7-J.Gillan).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for no gain (41-R.Spillane). PENALTY on CLE-23-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 20%

    (6:26) 22-N.Harris right guard to PIT 49 for 1 yard (33-R.Harrison, 96-J.Elliott).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-25-D.Felton.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.04 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool.