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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-25-D.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model