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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 52

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 22-N.Harris right guard to PIT 49 for 1 yard (33-R.Harrison, 96-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model