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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP