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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass incomplete short right to 81-Z.Gentry [96-J.Elliott]. PIT-9-C.Boswell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model