Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to GB: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.283 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.124 EPA/dropback
- CHI offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- GB offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
GB
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:48 TD CHI (6:48) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 24-K.Herbert left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 10:02 TD GB (10:02) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CHI 7
- Q2 04:13 FG GB (4:13) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 10 – CHI 7
- Q3 06:09 TD GB (6:09) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 7
- Q4 08:49 TD CHI (8:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – CHI 13
- Q4 04:38 TD GB (4:38) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – CHI 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 19 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 41%
(11:23) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CHI 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 17-J.Grant to CHI 20 for 11 yards (22-S.Jean-Charles).
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Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CHI 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at GB 48 for 27 yards (13-A.Lazard). PENALTY on CHI-23-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 25. Penalty on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 27%
(2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to 50 for 1 yard (31-A.Amos). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:12.)
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(14:57) 12-Aa.Rodgers up the middle to GB 46 for 2 yards (6-D.Trevathan).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 42 for 16 yards (44-A.Ogletree).
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Q2 GB 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%
(4:13) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 23%
(13:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to GB 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 10 for no gain (26-D.Bush).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 54%
(2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to GB 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
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Q3 GB 4th & 19 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:10) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 82 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.