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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model