Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 17 – Chicago Bears 7

(:10) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 82 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model