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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 51

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to 50 for 1 yard (31-A.Amos). Green Bay challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:12.)

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model