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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 53

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to GB 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 10 for no gain (26-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP