4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

2-3 HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

5-0 HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 16:25 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SF
51.6%
ARI
48.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to SF: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.297 vs Trey Lance (SF) +0.415 EPA/dropback (SF starting Trey Lance in place of Jimmy Garoppolo)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 27 20–34
–
ARI 23 16–30
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Calf
K'Waun Williams CB Out Calf
George Kittle TE Doubtful Calf
Samson Ebukam DE Questionable Hamstring
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Knee

ARI

Byron Murphy CB Out Ribs
Justin Murray T Out Back
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Ribs
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ribs
Eno Benjamin RB Questionable Hamstring
Chase Edmonds RB Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Ankle
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 TD ARI (9:06) 6-J.Conner left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 05:31 FG ARI (5:31) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SF 0 – ARI 10
  • Q3 01:49 TD SF (1:49) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 10
  • Q4 05:19 TD ARI (5:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – ARI 16
  • Q4 04:17 FG SF (4:17) 14-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 73%

    (4:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance left tackle to ARI 33 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:39) 14-A.Lee to ARI 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 26. 14-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SF 6, downed by ARI-29-J.Ward.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (11:34) 5-T.Lance sacked at ARI 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 51-T.Vallejo and 9-I.Simmons). ARI-9-I.Simmons was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (5:31) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-R.Moore to ARI 30 for 12 yards (49-T.Cannon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (14:01) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 21.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 59%

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 6-M.Sanu to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-A.Hamilton) [39-J.Whittaker].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:22) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 41 for 5 yards (26-E.Benjamin; 29-J.Ward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (14:17) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 39%

    (9:23) Direct snap to 44-K.Juszczyk. 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (94-Z.Allen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel (99-J.Watt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (4:17) 14-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →