Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.31 EP

KICK -0.66 EP

34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model