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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:23) Direct snap to 44-K.Juszczyk. 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (94-Z.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model