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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 41 for 5 yards (26-E.Benjamin; 29-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.00 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP