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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP