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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

ARI
41.0%
LA
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.244 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.499 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.264 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

ARI

Eno Benjamin RB Out Hamstring
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ribs
Justin Pugh G Questionable Back
Justin Murray T Questionable Back

LA

Tutu Atwell WR Questionable Illness
Darrell Henderson RB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 37
–
LA 20

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 FG LA (11:22) 8-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 05:58 TD ARI (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-D.Long, Defensive Holding, declined. ARI 6 – LA 3
  • Q1 01:00 TD LA (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LA 9
  • Q2 10:49 TD ARI (10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-M.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – LA 10
  • Q2 08:48 TD ARI (8:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – LA 10
  • Q2 03:25 FG LA (3:25) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 21 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 24 – LA 13
  • Q3 10:20 FG ARI (10:20) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 27 – LA 13
  • Q3 01:18 TD ARI (1:18) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 33 – LA 13
  • Q4 03:42 FG ARI (3:42) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 37 – LA 13
  • Q4 01:17 TD LA (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 2-R.Woods for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-J.Watt]. ARI 37 – LA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (11:22) 8-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:04) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Atwell to LA 37 for no gain (86-D.Harris).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 36%

    (7:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:52) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Atwell pushed ob at LA 48 for 4 yards (86-D.Harris).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (3:25) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (10:20) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (6:28) 8-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (12:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (3:42) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.