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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:07) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model