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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.05 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP