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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 34 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model