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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Atwell pushed ob at LA 48 for 4 yards (86-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model