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1-2 HC Pete Carroll
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Minnesota Vikings

1-2 HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 16:25 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

SEA
19.3%
MIN
80.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.258 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to SEA: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.207 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.340 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 26 19–33
–
MIN 27 20–34
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 53

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

SEA

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Out Concussion
Rashaad Penny RB Out Calf
Brandon Shell T Out Ankle
Benson Mayowa LB Questionable Neck

MIN

Harrison Hand CB Out Hamstring
Anthony Barr LB Out Knee
Christian Darrisaw T Out Groin
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 17
–
MIN 30

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:32 TD SEA (10:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – MIN 0
  • Q1 06:41 TD MIN (6:41) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – MIN 6
  • Q1 00:32 FG SEA (:32) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – MIN 7
  • Q2 11:19 TD SEA (11:19) 32-C.Carson left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – MIN 7
  • Q2 05:32 TD MIN (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-6-Q.Diggs, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 17 – MIN 13
  • Q2 00:20 TD MIN (:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – MIN 20
  • Q3 06:39 FG MIN (6:39) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 24
  • Q4 13:52 FG MIN (13:52) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 27
  • Q4 04:33 FG MIN (4:33) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. SEA 17 – MIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (:32) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:52) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to SEA 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%

    (3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 38 for 13 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (13:52) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 11 for -1 yards (19-P.Hart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.15 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (4:33) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 51%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 19-P.Hart (22-H.Smith) [99-D.Hunter].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (:29) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to SEA 1, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →