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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP