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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 11 for -1 yards (19-P.Hart).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP