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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model