Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 38 for 13 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model