Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.292 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.523 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.152 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.225 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LAC offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- Wind 19 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
LAC
KC
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 14:01 TD LAC (14:01) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – KC 0
- Q2 07:43 TD LAC (7:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – KC 0
- Q2 00:23 FG KC (:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LAC 14 – KC 3
- Q3 09:18 TD KC (9:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 88-J.Fortson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – KC 9
- Q3 03:41 TD KC (3:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – KC 16
- Q4 13:44 TD LAC (13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. LAC 20 – KC 17
- Q4 06:48 TD KC (6:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – KC 23
- Q4 02:17 FG LAC (2:17) 16-T.Vizcaino 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 24 – KC 24
- Q4 00:36 TD LAC (:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 30 – KC 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(12:57) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 32 for 17 yards (54-M.Overton). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Face Mask (15 Yards), 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 66%
(5:42) 1-T.Long punts 24 yards to 50, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.
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Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-K.Hill ran ob at LAC 28 for no gain.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:39) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 14, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.
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Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%
(:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:56) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 7 yards (94-C.Rumph).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 76%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to KC 19 for 9 yards (30-D.Baker) [51-M.Danna].
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(2:17) 16-T.Vizcaino 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.