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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to KC 19 for 9 yards (30-D.Baker) [51-M.Danna].

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model