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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 14, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model