Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(7:56) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman to KC 30 for 7 yards (94-C.Rumph).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model