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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 32 for 17 yards (54-M.Overton). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Face Mask (15 Yards), 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model