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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

IND
53.7%
TEN
46.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN defense: +0.239 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.146 vs Carson Wentz (IND) -0.013 EPA/dropback
  • IND defense: +0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

IND

Jordan Glasgow LB Out Concussion
Braden Smith T Out Foot
Carson Wentz QB Questionable Ankles

TEN

Caleb Farley CB Out Shoulder
Anthony Firkser TE Out Knee
Derick Roberson LB Out Knee
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Knee
Jayon Brown LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 16
–
TEN 25

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:38 TD TEN (6:38) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 80-C.Rogers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 10:25 TD IND (10:25) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 06:01 TD TEN (6:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – TEN 14
  • Q3 06:30 FG IND (6:30) 3-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – TEN 14
  • Q4 13:01 TD TEN (13:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 28-J.McNichols for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 20
  • Q4 10:23 FG IND (10:23) 3-R.Blankenship 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – TEN 22
  • Q4 03:02 FG TEN (3:02) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 16 – TEN 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:18) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to IND 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 29 for 12 yards (30-G.Odum, 37-K.Willis).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 2-J.Jones pushed ob at IND 26 for 15 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 18 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 53%

    (10:45) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 35 for 6 yards (54-R.Evans; 99-R.Weaver).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (7:27) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 9 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:30) 3-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 20 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 14 yards (20-J.Wilkins).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (10:23) 3-R.Blankenship 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (3:02) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 72%

    (1:02) 3-R.Blankenship 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.