Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

(4:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model